Well, The Vix actually went slightly lower briefly in late January. So the exuberance is still within a predictable range. That's all I make of it.
The market is one big shakedown operation, and that's what bear market rallies are all about. Part of the trick is persuading people that it's a new bull market. With each new burst of exuberance, the old suckers are brought back in, and some new ones are netted.
You'll no doubt see the perma-bulls emerging from the woodwork this weekend if the Dow closes near its high. We'll all hear about the new bull market, the bargains, the good charts, the deluded bears, the laughable commentary by bearish gurus, etc. Then when the market tanks, the perma-bulls will retreat with their losses once again.
They probably have little homes in the woodwork by now, with couches, TV's, refrigerators. All the missing spoons you've been searching for -- they've probably been hoarded by the Borrowers -- the perma-bulls on margin, living out their humble lives in the woodwork. |
