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Strategies & Market Trends : Investor sentiment surveys - a technical indicator
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To: Q. who wrote (89)7/7/1997 12:12:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins   of 167
 
Hi John; re >However, the
anti-correlation with the % bulls was the strongest of the three. That's why in the effort to find a simple metric, I focus on the % bulls.<<
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SI does the anti-correlation , and it seems to work. In a sence
dividing the bears in to the bulls to get a bull/bear ratio will
change depending on the neutrals, and the SI sentiment seems to
be a fair indicator of at least the tech sector, the higher the
bull/bear the more chance of a corection.
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I'm also one to want a mean average..however that average may change
over time and not be usable over a long time span. I would think
that after any major correction that the former percentage may not
hold true, ( on it's own ). Maybe getting a mean average before
the correction..then note how much above or below the average the
sentiment was at the time of the correction would work to let us
look at a new percentage figure as an indicator, it depending
on a more recent mean average. In short if the modle is based
on a long time frame something needs factor in such things as
people willing to take more or less risk, in spite of their
sentiment..they may feel obliged to risk in todays world, were
that was not the same even 10 years ago. Or the other way around.
Jim
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