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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: limtex who wrote (35723)3/1/2002 7:36:49 PM
From: t2  Read Replies (3) of 99280
 
Those numbers today are pretty powerful indicators of what may be the strongest recovery in history

No recovery in tech spending. There may be a general economic pick up but you are not going to see incredible level of spending in tech. That means tech overvalued.

Maybe the cyclical names (non-tech) are pretty good ways to play this market but I would not confuse those good economic numbers with tech spending.

Oracle is telling us that it is still a tough environment for tech companies. Cisco, IBM, EDS are basically saying they don't see a major pickup.

This is just a liquidity driven rally. Liquidity is not going to drive the nasdaq much higher in a post stock mania world. The inflows won't be there as people realize that it is better to buy something rather than put money into an uncertain market.

This run up is pulling in money from bond and money markets.....I think most will be disappointed as stocks can go down pretty quick too. Normally, I would think we are building up momentum and going to keep rocketting higher but that can't happen after the big surge into the market happened only 2 years old..with disasterous results.
I wish I could be looking forward to stock splits and momentum runs on some stocks but it is too late for that. The most I expect is good long trades on value stocks (PE less than 20 in this environment). The managers who have the big mutual fund holdings now are the ones that know about valuations and not the guys who just ran momentum funds.

jmho
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