gem-x's Elliott Wave Forecast: Feb 27 02
(I don't know what happened, but my forecast wasn't sent by the mailing software, sorry about that)
I looked very carefully at the charts from the past week on the 5 day 1 minute, to figure out what happened yesterday....yesterday was quite bizarre..
The morning started out great, and before you could blink, at 10AM, there was literally a straight line down from 1789 to 1750...I was expecting a retracement, because I could clearly see 5 waves up from 1696 up to than, and a fast stochastic touching 100... but I wasn't expecting a mini-crash.
The drop to 1750 was around the .382/.500 retracement level, and than the market rallied...kind of.
By the end of the day, there was another attempt, but it failed, and retraced exactly .78 of the drop to 1780....what gets me, is that this type of action appeared just last week. Last week the market rallied from 1729 to 1777, retraced to the .382/.500 level, rallied to to .78 than broke new lows. The chart from Wed-Thurs of last week
looks exactly like the chart from Fri to now.
If the channel breaks in the morning, which it's getting pretty close (I drew an upward channel from 1696 to 1750), and can't break 1780, than we could have one of those bad Greenspan days. a sharp 3-4-5- down...and a re-test of the lows, maybe a very close shave test of the lows. (around .78)...and these lows better hold.
Tomorrow, the levels to watch are 1742 (.500 retracement), 1731, (.618) and especially 1716 (.78).
For the bulls, the best we could hope for is the NASDAQ getting to around 1789, and forming a triangle on a 2, or a successful retest of the lows.
It could form a triangle, but Greenspan days can be hairy.
Also, the put/call ratio on the 21 day is now .86, just .02 away from the extremes of Sept.. |
