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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: waverider who wrote (35904)3/1/2002 10:59:22 PM
From: Robin Plunder  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
WR, here is a TA question for you and others..... The 10 year chart of gold shows a rounded bottom forming from late 1996 to the present, with it currently, perhaps, coming up out of the rounding bottom. The 10 year chart of the nyse shows a rounded top over the same time period, with the chart heading down into the declining portion of the rounding top from mid-2000.

If the rounding top plays out according to TA, then we would expect the downward movement in nyse to continue for a couple more years....is this something that you consider likely? Do you think the rounded bottom in gold will similarly project upward for a couple more years?

Here are some comments on rounded reversals from Edwards and Magee:

"We know of no measuring formula that can be applied to Rounding Turns (except for the minimum qualifications we mentioned in connection with Head-and-shoulders, ie they cannot be counted upon to produce a greater move than the preceding price swing in the opposite direction). But they almost never deceive. Their implications can be roughly estimated from the magnitude of the trends that led to them and the length of time they take in the rounding-over process. The Rounding turns that often appear on weekly and monthly charts, thus, have major import."

If this is true, it may be a good idea to stay away from nyse for a looooong time. Although gold might be a good place to be in the mean time.

Appreciate your comments

Robin
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