re: <because you have to have a sherlock holmes spyglass lately to find a bull on SI lately, i think the probability of the rally to continue quite high>
Bobby, for those that don't have a Sherlock Holmes spyglass (and a couple people who sent PM), my model went 100% long a week ago last Friday at the open.
Message 17096782
Currently the model is still long with some room to run if the rally consolidates a bit first. Many of the indicators are at solid short term resistance levels. Tough to call if we break out up or go back to retest 1700 area on the Nasdaq, but wouldn't be surprised to retest lower first. However the market looks good from a long term perspective, interest rates are low, economy is just emerging from a recession or slowdown, oil and gas prices are under control, unemployment claims have peaked and are dropping, money supply figures look good, etc. QQQ is currently about 15% off its high of the year which looks like a correction in a bull market that started in late September. At this stage in the economy, true long term investors typically are better off to be in the market.
Below are my model's buys and sells for this year. Each call has been and will be posted on this thread for other timers to comment on or poke fun:
CB Model 2002:
- January 2nd: buy qqq at open 39.57......$100,000 in qqq.
- January 4: sell qqq at open 41.95.......$106,005 in cash.
- January 7: short 25% of account at open 42.11......$79,504 cash, $26,491 short qqq.
- February 7: buy back qqq short at $36.00......$109,829 in cash.
- February 20: go 50% long, buy qqq at 34.9......$54,904 in qqq, 54,915 in cash.
- February 22: go to 100% long at open, buy qqq at 33.61.....$107,780 in qqq.
- March 2: qqq closed 3/1 at 35.74......Ytd qqq is down 9.7%, CB model is up 14.6%.
Tom |
