Mike, I am lucky also regarding work - I like it and have more fun working than not working. Regarding the Nasdaq decline, it has been a challenge, but I have stayed mostly upbeat about investing despite the dive. It comes partly from a fundamental belief that technology is a fantastic win-win story that just keeps getting better. I don't know what the "7" wonders of the world are, but I know the 8th one is technology.
Of course one needs to temper enthusiasm for technology in the area of investing, probably quite a bit. This thread is a great forum for us AMAT/tech investors. Some day we will look back and be able to evaluate our views as investors of this day and understand how on-target or off-target we were. It is very hard to put it all in perspective. On the one hand, perhaps the internet is no big deal, just another of many tools for humans to interact. Per this view Nasdaq will probably take a long, long time to come back. On the other hand, perhaps the internet is causing "chain-reactions" that are so great they can't be measured, perhaps this thing is still beginning to take off, and short-term events like our last-mile problem are just a bump in the road. Also, understanding what has already happened is difficult. I heard Gilder mention on TV recently that if it was not for fiber optics it would have taken some huge number like a trillion+ dollars just make the internet work as good as it does now. I did not realize fiber optics was such a necessary technology for the emergence of the internet. We sort of take for granted certain technologies without thinking about what would have happened in their absence.
My personal belief is that the internet is going do great things for us as we go forward. For one thing, I think there will be tremendous savings in the area of transportation as result of the web. Bad news for airlines and jet transport makers, but great news for all of us a group. Also great news for future generations that will probably still have some oil reserves as a result of this efficiency. Also real estate values will shift, it won't matter as much where we live.
A real tough part for us as investors is when things will happen. It seems to me that telecom is big business going forward, but I don't know when that will happen. As Jacob has pointed out, it is essential that we invest in companies that survive this bust period, and even then we need to make sure the wait is not too long for us, and also that the downside risk is not great.
John
PS Short term trading: Just picked up some FLEX and CREE. FLEX in particular looks cheap here to me - hope the outsourcing trend continues. CREE is a "gorilla" per the gorilla thread folks, both stocks are down to about half where they were in December and both have outperformed AMAT on a 5-year chart. |
