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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: TREND1 who wrote (36045)3/2/2002 4:09:16 PM
From: 16yearcycle  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
Larry, you shouldn't be waiting for the fed model to show undervalued, imho. Unlike almost everyone here, let me suggest that the e numbers MAY be really low. For example, it's not a stretch that peak dow e in this up leg hit 1000, a gain of say 10% compounding from 2000 to 2005. So what will the dow be at the end of 2005 if e are expected to hit 1100 in 2006?(expectations always too high at the end of the cycle, and too low at the beginning?).

Not that you shouldn't draw the line somewhere, but why not use an error of 5%?
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