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Technology Stocks : Novellus
NVLS 2.400+2.1%Jul 24 5:00 PM EST
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To: Andy H who wrote (3306)3/3/2002 4:08:31 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 3813
 
I use cycle peak earnings to value semi-equips, so I agree with your methodology. I think the problem is to adhere to a particular number like your 15 PE. The most valuable book on investing I ever read was Ken Fisher's "Super Stocks", but it took me a while to realize his PSRs were too low for the '90s. The semi-equip industry is maturing, leaders are more obvious, consolidation is occurring, and these changes are in an historically low interest rate and inflation environment. I think your analysis should consider a higher PE than 15. I have been looking at 20 - 30, up from 20 which I used in the last up cycle.
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