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Technology Stocks : Novellus
NVLS 2.400+2.1%Jul 24 5:00 PM EST

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To: LemurHouse who wrote (3309)3/3/2002 8:41:58 PM
From: Cary Salsberg   of 3813
 
In the last move up, '99 I think, on the AMAT thread, I suggested a strategy very similar to what you said.

I said we should try to estimate the max cycle earnings and apply a 20 PE to it. I said that the quality of the estimate would improve as we got closer to the top. I said that if the market discounted the target max price early in the upturn, it made sense to take profits.

This strategy allowed me to keep most of my profits in 2000.
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