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Strategies & Market Trends : Joe Stocks Trader Talk
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To: Joe Stocks who started this subject3/3/2002 8:45:09 PM
From: Joe Stocks   of 787
 
Market direction. I'm at one of those points where I have no idea of what way the market will go from here. I have had a bearish bias and still am longer term bearish but as far as the next two weeks to a month a just have to sit on the fence here and ponder. The last couple days I have visited a few of mt favorite boards and to me the bull and bear arguments are evenly matched near term. What really surprises me is that a couple of the bear commentary sites I visit are starting to question there stance. Here is one example from Prudent Bear. it starts out like this;
"We May Be Wrong, But Won’t Say So Yet"
prudentbear.com

Let's say I do buy the "bull" line. How heavy does one get long when we have wars and rumor of wars going on and our government has set up a shadow government with some fears of nuclear terrorism. Maybe it takes a little reading between the lines but it seems to me we are one incident away from another 911 market reaction. That said, that fear could be unrealized for months or years, or maybe not ever.

The only way I can see playing the market right here is cutting back on short positions, try to catch some intraday long and short mo-mo action and try to maintain a healthy cash position. If I couldn't trade the market daily I would stay in cash on the sidelines. I don't see the demand side of the economy confirming the supply side unless you are just looking at consumer buys of housing and cars.

Here is an essay that mostly sums up what I'm thinking for the intermediate term titled; "THE US ECONOMIC ‘RECOVERY’: IT’S DEBT RECYCLING, STUPID"
prudentbear.com

For the short term I have to admit I'm battling bull and bear arguments in my head.

Just a thought, Joe
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