Mish, I'm curious about the QQQ analysis, but I actually don't think there's any way to answer my rambling question that follows.
Basically, is there any way for you or us or anyone to do a dollar weighted max pain? I ask this because there was A LOT of open interest in the March puts weeks ago -- in other words, puts bought when they cost a lot more than they do today. In fact, I dare say a lot of those puts could finish a buck or two in the money. . . and still be $$$ lost by the buyers. Same would be true of Dow Puts. Lots of folks bought puts when the Dow was battling with 10100. If, say, they bought 101 puts, between the lower Vix and the rise of 270 Dow points, it's gonna take a close well below 10000, my guess, to make that money back (for anyone who's still holding that is). Not to say that can't happen, of course, but that's beside the point.
So, is it possible that this skews max pain in a way we can't really detect? Or is it better to just go on figgering in the same old way, since it's worked well in the past?
thanks,
the freep |
