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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (10941)3/4/2002 12:28:29 AM
From: High Country Trader  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
"Do you consider Friday's action a momentum trigger or are you looking for additional confirmation"??? Based on recent bottoms beginning with late May 2000 momentum bottoms have been days where the up/down volume on the NYSE was at least 3 to 1 and on the Nasdaq 5 to 1. We got that on the NYSE but not the Nasdaq Friday. I've never been one to make much money waiting for additional confirmation and presently am clueless as to the Nasdaq and NYSE direction (although I hope you are right) I like to play where I have an edge so Friday I went heavier than usual into Asian funds. If ever there was a classic day for datelining Asian funds it was Friday based on the action in tech, the SOX, the Asian ADRs, and the Asian I Shares. In hindsight seeing Asia tonight wish I had gone even heavier. You shouldn't have run your bearish volatility expert off. It would have been fun watching him explain Friday. Volatility has worked well as a sentiment indicator in many of the recent years but not very reliably in the mid 90s. Also works best as a bottom indicator instead of a top indicator. Just be careful if Investors Intelligence gets back below 26%. That has been an excellent sell point in the past decade. Again good luck on the long side. When I'm clueless I always ask myself what do I least expect and what does the public seem to least expect (since that's where the market normally goes) and right now I would think a sustained and powerful up move is least expected (as opposed to a trading range or more downside)
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