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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (31359)	3/4/2002 12:31:05 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) of 52237

Well said, Terry. Could not agree more To the thread: The market is about anticipation and making educated guess. That's all any of us can do. I've known and worked with some very successful traders. None of them walk around in biblical robes or carry a crystal ball.<lol> Nor are they right all the time. Nobody is! All that's necessary is to be on the right side of market trends MOST of the time. And when you're not? Be flexible AND humble enough to admit you're wrong and CUT the loss!!! If you do that, you'll make a great deal of money over the years. IMHO, the nay sayers don't understand the role of the market in discounting economic and company specific fundamental news in advance and especially how to read the hints and signals market participants give us about likely outcomes. The key word is likely. Forecasts aren't about certainties. I've found most of those who diss forecasting do so because they simply haven't learned what a forecast is. A forecast is NOT a prediction. The word prediction carries connotations of certainty and absolute knowledge. There is no such thing in trading. Professionals as well as talented amateurs know that. By contrast, a "forecast" is an educated guess. An opinion of a likely or probable outcome. That's a VERY different animal from a prediction, Brook. How long it takes to develop forecasting skill varies depending upon the emotional as well as the cognitive intelligence of the individual trader. Have know people with high cognitive intelligence, but were emotionally inflexible. They took twice as long to reach the skill level of someone with above average cognitive ability who was more emotionally introspective, insightful and flexible so as to more quickly weed out their counter productive attitudes. IMHO, after many years in this business, it's not all that difficult to be right more than half the time once a person has logged whatever number of years in the trenches are necessary to get rid of attitudes that inhibit and delay the real learning process. One of the eternal verities of this game is that people are far too impatient. They become discouraged because they expect to learn to read the market in their first few years of trying. When they are unable to do so? Their comments become increasing sarcastic and negative towards those who've been at it long enough to develop the instincts and skills to identify trends and trend changes before the crowd Again, if you're right more than 1/2 the time and cut your losses when your wrong you'll make a ton of money over a period of years. That doesn't make you a guru. Just a VERY successful trader. My posting time is very limited. So anyone, on the thread, who wishes to reply can have the last word<g> Regards to all, Isopatch

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