*Japan Business Leaders See Delayed Recovery - Nikkei
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
TOKYO (Nikkei)--Some 89% of business leaders say the Japanese economy will not bottom out until at least the second half of the year, according to 98 major company presidents and chairpersons surveyed late last month by The Nihon Keizai Shimbun, the newspaper reported in its Tuesday morning edition.
Some 48% think the economy will find a bottom in the second half of the year, while 32.7% think it will do so in the first half of 2003. Some 8.2% believe the economy will not reach bottom before July 2003.
The figures are roughly unchanged from the previous survey conducted in November.
Anxiety about deteriorating earnings subsided slightly since the last survey, however, thanks to a few bright spots, such as a rosier recovery outlook for the U.S.
Some 29.6% said the earnings climate has deteriorated in the last three months, compared with 66% in the November poll. Some 59.2% reported no change since November, while 9.2% noticed improvement, a 6.3 percentage point increase.
A whopping 65.3% see the U.S. economy "headed for recovery," and 53.1% believe the 130-140 yen exchange rate against the dollar is appropriate. Such support for a weak yen suggests high hopes for an export-led recovery.
To the question of causes for concern, with multiple answers permitted, some 66.3% cited "slumping consumption and sales," while "falling retail prices" garnered 40.8%. The numbers suggest that many executives are getting walloped by the one-two punch of falling prices and sales volume.
Some executives fear a long-term increase in Chinese imports due to the country's growing production prowess.
Some 14.3% cited a "lack of confidence in financial institutions," up 8.5 points from November. Another 14.3% cited concern that "business partners might go under," up 0.7 point from the previous poll.
For use of funds, highest priority will be given to "paying off debt" by 35.9% of the executives, whereas 23.5% will prioritize "research and development," up 5.1 points from November.
Updated March 4, 2002 1:44 p.m. EST |
