The model for the operation is Jordan's Black September in 1970.
That doesn't seem like quite the right model. I'm sure you know more about it than these links show, it was before my time but these accounts seem to indicate a fairly close battle that Jordan could, conceivably, have lost. Especially considering the Syrian involvement. onwar.com
geocities.com . The first link shows Jordan taking fairly severe losses, greater than the PLO suffered, though I don't know how accurate those figures are.
I can't see that Jordan ever had anywhere near the military strength of the current IDF, though, and I can't see the current PA having anything like the military capability the PLO had in Jordan. Arafat has no tanks, no artillery. I guess he wants to go out in a blaze of glory or something, like Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. The river Jordan is deep and wide, but if I read the maps correctly Arafat doesn't have much chance of making it there anyway.
On another topic, something from a couple months ago you might appreciate. theatlantic.com This is Reuel Marc Gerecht, ex-CIA type, I've cited his "The Counterterrorist Myth" article previously. This article was posted here by SR, not to much notice though. Gerecht's view of Arab perceptions of the US seems to match yours. Still doesn't have much hope for the CIA, though. |
