Novellus Message Board - Msg: 17150492

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Technology Stocks : Novellus

NVLS 2.400

+2.1%

Jul 24 5:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3316)	3/4/2002 10:45:46 PM
From: jmanvegas	Read Replies (1) of 3813

The excessive price for NVLS that your are referring to during year 2000 was about $68/share. That was an all-time high for NVLS' stock price. Didn't NVLS do about $440M or so in its best quarter at that time. NVLS is expected to do about $160M during the next quarter and probably better than that in the next few quarters thereafter. But I doubt very highly they'll reach peak sales during this cycle like they did in 2000. With the stock price hitting $51.75 today, how much higher can NVLS go. Another $10 up from here and NVLS is trading near the market cap of its bubble days with not even being close to those bubble day revenues or earnings. From what I'm reading on the threads of many semiconductor companies is that folks believe that the valuations today of semi equipment companies should be or will become equivalent to the 1999-2000 bubble days. And with much lower revenues and earnings. The momo folks are back. The valuations are utterly ridiculous from a P/E or P/S viewpoint (BTW, IMHO, the P/S valuation method is one of the biggest fallacies invented by the Street recently). And there's no way until maybe 2004-2005 will NVLS ever reach its peak revenues and earnings it achieved during 2000. I believe additional rallies from these already lofty levels will present an excellent shorting opportunity. JMHO. It also appears that the war is now background noise from the Street's and most investors' perspective. The Afghan situation is getting worse and more bogged down for US forces. The Israeli/Palestine situation is blowing up worse. We're going to war with Iraq sooner than anyone thinks (within 1 year I guess). The US government learned of a plot to smuggle in a nuclear device into NYC. Obviously, that plot turned out to a false alarm. But extremely scary nonetheless. That being said, political events are an unknown sideshow for the markets. All I know is that one more terrorist attack and it is crash time for the markets. Think it won't happen. I don't know anyone who believes or thinks a horrific terrorist act won't occur. Bottom line - buy 60-200 P/E stocks and chase them at your own peril. This is nothing more than a vigorous bear market rally, especially for the NAZ. Good luck all. jmanvegas

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