Dow low today was at the base of the rising wedge out of the Feb. 20 low with the upper line originating from the Feb. 25 high. These lines converged at the low today, providing support.
The fast stochastics are resting on the rising trendline, indicating a turn is possible tomorrow. The upper resistance at 10,600 is pretty strong. The RSI is also resting on a rising support line. In short (no pun intended), it is decision time for the Dow - re-trace or continue up.
If the Dow goes up tomorrow, a breach of 10,600 could result in gains to 10,660 and possibly 10,700. If it goes down, the middle BB could be around 10,100, providing eventual support. A breach of today's lows would probably result in the drop to the middle BB.
This could make a case for a sideways correction off the top with an eventual breach of 10,600 to the upside. I don't know how that fits with the wave counts, but I'm just seeing that the up may be more favored from here than the down.
The 60-minute shows the price stopped right at the middle BB today, and the stochastics are getting close to where the Dow has reversed lately.
I think it is possible a we may drop to around 10,368 or so and reverse up to challenge the 10,600 level.
The NYA has a bit more to drop and consolidate than the Dow, so that may come into play here also.
Any thoughts or comments would be appreciated. |
