I am thinking of recycling the money I'm taking out of AMAT in the 50s, and putting it into ALTR in the 19-21 range.
Basically, AMAT seems to be at the top of it's 40-50 range, and ALTR seems to be, at around 20, at a support line that has held repeatedly in this long Bear Market.
In addition, I think there is a possibility that we see a disconnect, between the usual correlation of semi sales and semi-equip bookings. That is, in past cycles, as soon as semis saw the inflection point in semi sales, it was only a short time (a very few months) before they started placing orders for capacity buys of semi-equip. This time, it may be different, ng. This time, the capacity utilization is so low, it may be 6-12 months after the inflection point in semi sales (an inflection point I think I'm seeing now), before we see capacity orders for semi-equipment. Until then, semi-equip bookings may bounce along in the current low flat-line range. And there is a strong correlation between semi-equip bookings and semi-equip stock prices. |
