gem-x's Elliott Wave Forecast: March 07, 02...Wave 5 or Wave B
Today came in just about as expected from yesterday's e-mail...a drop to around 1830-1835 in the "3-4-5" down of the C wave on the zigzag (got to 1841), than a possible Wave 1, Wave 2, than start of a Wave 3 of the Wave 5 upmove targeting 1942-1945..(if 1841 holds, as high as 1955-1959)
>From what I see, the correction the past 2 days looked like a pretty standard Wave 4 sideways correction, looking a lot like the Wave 4 DOW correction from the years 1965 to 1982. I like it when things look familiar...but since the correction fell short of the intended target, (1825-1830), and the fact that I'm a little obsessed with perfection, I have an alternate count of this correction, which to me is less likely to occur (this was discussed after the bell in the chat room I created on PalTalk.com...to access it, you have to download a small 750 KB file, than go to the Business and Finance category..my chat room is "gemxwave Elliott Wave Real Time Intraday Forecasts"). The move up from 1841 to 1892 could have been a "B" wave in a expanded flat....if this is the case, than this move would halt at around 1.236 of Wave A (1897), or 1.382 X Wave A (1903-1907), than drop in an impulse down to the expected .382 level of 1825-1830...(1901 would be the .78 retracement of the move down from 1959 to 1696). Th
But what makes me believe that this is less likely, is the fact that we got a pretty textbook "outside day" and a "bullish engulfing" candle. An outside day, is a bullish reversal pattern which would do the following: a lower low than the previous day, than a higher high of the previous day, closing at or near the high on strong volume....and a bullish engulfer is a white candle that "engulfs" the entire body of the previous day's candle....not the full white version, which is more bullish, but a white candle with a tail.
If we break 1897 and 1907 tomorrow with conviction, than the move up we'd be seeing is a "Wave 3" of "Wave 5" up...this would target between 1.50-1.78X Wave 1, which was 1841 to 1880 today. 1.50 is (58.5 + 1859 = 1917.15), 1.618 is 1922, and 1.78, 1928.5..
Channel watch: A channel break that would retrace the entire move from 1841 to 1892 today would occur around 1866-1868 in the first couple hours of trading...right now the NASDAQ Futures are up around 5-6 points, so this is less likely.
Tomorrow, I'll be watching 1897 and 1907 (which are both close to the 50 and 200 day MA's on the COMP), and possible upside or downside breaks, as usual..
DISCLAIMER:
GemX does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information contained on these pages/e-mails, but provides it for whatever value our members and guests may find in it.
Subject 51336
gem-x's incredibly accurate Elliott Wave forecasts If you want to join the free e-mail list, (sent every day, during the day when I start to notice a predictable wave...) e-mail me at gemxwave@msn.com. It's totally free. If you're a short OR long, these Elliott Wave forecasts are great. |
