JD> Morons, Amateurs, Idiots
It's not so bad being an amateur. Humility goes a long way towards capital preservation.
Sometimes I feel like a moron. Selling the week before a stock doubles or buying the day before it loses 25%.
A couple of times, I felt like an idiot when I thought I did a proper DD, only to find out that management was dishonest, and I was stupid enough to believe all that.
Points of view cannot be suppressed, however, evidence can be presented that should cause us to question our POV. If the evidence is compelling enough and I still persist in my POV, then I deserve to be called a moron, an idiot and an amateur.
Regardless, something is definitely happening with the rmbs stock. I was trying to figure out if the 'intc out of rdram' thing is already factored in. It could just be that a few souls thought that this was a big deal and shorted, when in reality, the big guys and most of the little guys already know this for a fact.
However, because this is true, the corollary is that revenue will go down, earnings will go negative (hard to hit ptnewel's 14c/q when a chunk of your business goes away) and that will be harder to ignore. That takes time to work through though.
You might feel that 'intc out of rdram' might not be real, but to many, the evidence has been accumulating for a long time. I think it is very credible --- the rdram wkstations and performance PCs will be around until a faster solution shows up, but you might be surprised how soon this will happen. For the 400fsb, this cheap solution might be very very soon, for the 533fsb, that will be much later. The industry has proven consistently that they can out-innovate rmbs when it comes to squeezing performance out of ddr in a truncated schedule.
But you do have the right to your own pov.
I do agree with one assertion. If by some miracle, the legal disasters are reversed, then there is a chance. But you have to look at all the possibilities and decide which ones are real and which ones just aint gonna happen. INTC stopping their roadmap to reconsider rdram in desktops just aint gonna happen for the next 6 months. The legal thing could.
SbH |
