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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: Chris who wrote (31663)3/7/2002 9:06:33 AM
From: Ramsey Su  Read Replies (2) of 52237
 
Chris,

Aside from all the TA indicators, I have a bunch of fundamental issues that I cannot find answers for and am wondering how they will play out in the near future:

1. probably the hardest to predict is the potential of war. Actually, we are already at war in Afghanistan but what if we invade Iraq?

2. the Japan situation is a real head scratcher. The yen is so strong the last few days. I opine that the yen is not controlled by free market forces but rather the actions of BOJ and the Fed. What strings are these puppeteers pulling these days?

3. the debt issue, or is it a non issue? Are US consumers exhausted or do they have bottomless bank accounts?

4. this steel tariff is another head scratcher. Are steel prices, a big raw material, going up 30%? What is impact on inflation? Furthermore, this is anti free trade, destroying everything that this country represents. The affected countries are bound to retaliate. Where are they going to hit?

5. Is valuation high, or low? I was looking at the MSDW upgrade of Intel yesterday and can find little details. May be a MSDW client would have access to the full report but the summary simply said they expect Intel to improve the 2nd half of the year. Intel should meet earnings of $.16 or so this quarter. For 2002, they are expected to earn around $.62. That is 50 PE at current prices.

6. finally, there is that whole debate about what stage of the recession we are in, if at all.

The only conclusion that I can draw is related to volatility. I think the market moves will be violent and fast. Sure hate to be caught on the wrong side.

Ramsey
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