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Technology Stocks : Irrational Semiconductor Stock Prices

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To: Stock Guru who wrote (7)7/7/1997 7:55:00 PM
From: Dan Spillane   of 17
 
Isn't semiconductor sales growth key to stock price? For example, the SIA just reported growth of 3% May '97 over April '97 and (for the first time in a long time) growth above year-ago levels. 3% annualized is 36% -- not that I expect 3% every month, but food for thought.

July 7, 1997 # 24
GLOBAL CHIP SALES ROSE 3 PERCENT IN MAY; FOR FIRST TIME, 1997 SALES ECLIPSE 1996 SALES

SAN JOSE --- Global semiconductor sales increased by 3 percent in May to $11.41 billion, a $331 million hike from April's sales of $11.08 billion, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association's monthly Global Sales Report.

For the first time this year, 1997 sales not only improved on a month-to-month basis, but on a year-to-year comparison as well. Semiconductor sales in May 1997 were 1.6 percent higher than May 1996, when sales hit $11.23 billion. The strongest growth occurred in the Asia-Pacific and Americas markets, where May 1997 sales were 9 percent and 6 percent higher, respectively, than sales in May 1996.

"This is a good indicator that the long-awaited recovery is under way," said Doug Andrey, Director of Information Systems and Finance for the SIA. "May was the best month for the chip industry since April 1996."

Sales in May increased in all four major markets, led by a 5.5 percent jump in Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan), 3.2 percent in the Americas market and 2.9 percent growth in Japan. Sales in the European market grew by 0.3 percent, according to data compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization.

Sales in the Americas market rose from $3.77 billion in April to $3.89 billion in May --- the region's highest total since April 1996, the WSTS said. In May 1996, the North and South American market enjoyed sales of $3.67 billion.

Sales in the European market increased slightly from $2.371 billion in April to $2.378 billion in May. That figure represents a 0.4 percent increase over the European market's May 1996 sales of $2.368 billion.

Sales also increased in Japan, where fluctuations in the value of the Yen have depressed semiconductor revenues all year. Japan's sales increased from $2.55 billion to $2.62 billion in May. However, May's sales still represents an 8.8 percent decline from Japan's May 1996 sales of $2.88 billion.

Sales remained vigorous in the Asia-Pacific market, increasing from $2.38 billion in April to $2.51 billion in May. In May 1996, sales in the Asia-Pacific market hit $2.30 billion. May's sales are the region's highest totals since January 1996.

These global sales numbers represent a three-month rolling average of sales in the world's major chip markets.

For additional information contact Jeff Weir or Doug Andrey at the SIA - 408-436-6600.

May 1997 Global Sales Report
Month to Month Sales

Market April 1997 May 1997 % Change
Americas 3.772 3.892 3.2
Europe 2.371 2.378 0.3
Japan 2.555 2.629 2.9
Asia-Pacific 2.382 2.512 5.5
Total $11.08 Billion $11.41 Billion 3.0 %

Year to Year Monthly Sales

Market May 1996 May 1997 % Change
Americas 3.673 3.892 6.0
Europe 2.368 2.378 0.4
Japan 2.884 2.629 -8.8
Asia-Pacific 2.305 2.512 9.0
Total $11.23 Billion $11.41 Billion 1.6 %

Rolling Three-Month Average Sales

Market Dec/Jan/Feb March/Apr/May % Change
Americas 3.415 3.892 14
Europe 2.244 2.378 6
Japan 2.577 2.629 2
Asia-Pacific 2.166 2.512 16
Total $10.40 Billion $11.41 Billion 9.7 %

Note: Some numbers may not add due to rounding. All numbers represent a three-month moving average
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