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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 691.72

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Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36387)	3/8/2002 4:04:26 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 69852

[madtrader] Thu Mar 7, 1:59pm PST $NIKI.X $TYX.X I have been suggesting that Japan is probably starting it's own recovery. NIKI hit a 7 month high while massive repatriation of the Yen has pounded the Dollar. Dollar had it's single biggest loss since 1998. One look at the long term charts of the Dollar shows a clear head'n shoulder formation. This kind Technical traders are clearly dumping the Dollar. This kind of inter-market movement simply pushed the bonds over the edge. Bond market had a huge loss today, I don't know if this would accelerate the process of asset rebalance for the institutions. Of course, if popular press is any indication (they are always wrong) the little guys will get killed again. In the past 6 months, whether it is Fortune, Money or Mutual Fund magazine. All one ever reads are the pieces plugging bond funds. And bond fund cash inflows has been it's highest since 1993-94, a period preceded one of the worst bear market for bonds in recent history. I mentioned not too long ago that the current issue of Fortune has a fluff piece touting Bill Gross as the new King of Wall Street. Mr. Gross being the biggest bond trader has been naturally bearish on stocks. Unfortunately I think he is just plain wrong. I believe we are easily going to see 6% plus for long bonds this year, if not 6.50%. That is more bearish for bonds than stocks. If asset allocation trades pick up steam, you will see people dumping bonds and buying stocks. none

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