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Non-Tech : Raptor's Den

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To: velociraptor_ who started this subject	3/8/2002 11:13:21 AM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (1) of 10157

The case for a near term top. Use the chart below... The run from the Sept low to the early January high took approximately 73 trading days and unfolded in 5 waves to complete an impulsive set. What we have seen so far since then is a corrective pattern unfold as there are no complete large degree 5 wave impulses on the down side. Below you'll see that the light blue structure is 3 waves and took about 21-22 days to complete and is about 100 points in length. The first and 3rd wave here both nearly the same size in length (slightly off). I am calling this the A wave of the correction. Next we have a purple structure which is also 3 waves and we are currently in the c wave of this structure. I am calling the purple structure wave B of the correction. The c wave has 5 waves with the 5th wave forming what appears to be an ending diagonal. Thus far it has taken 21 days and if it is on par with the light blue structure at 21-22 days it could very well today or Monday early at the latest. The run from the low at 1074 to the high today is about 98 points. 2 more points to 1174 would make wave B equal to wave A in length. Also, the length of wave "c" of B is exactly twice the length of wave "a" of B at 1172 which is todays high so far. If all of this is true, then we should see a 5 wave impulse form on the downside that could start as early as today. I do not expect the lows of sept to be tested at this point, however, the retrace levels of the S&P are 50% = 1061 and 62% = 1033. On of these is a likely target. Since the C wave should be an impulse, it will likely take less time than the A and B waves. Since each of the first two look like they will take about 21-22 days, I would estimate that the C wave could take 0.618 times that or about 13-14 days to complete. There is a major turn date on March 8/11 and again on March 28 which is about 13 trading days after the 11th. raptorgroupresearch.com

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