True. I will wait till the sentiment gets better, on EMC, before lightening up. When EMC is back up above 15, I'll be hearing analysts on CNBC say: "the recession is over, business spending is coming back, EMC has a strong brand, they've come back over and over and beat back attempts to invade their turf, and they'll do it again, sooner or later." That's the Bull Case for EMC, and I'm not hearing it today.
I've managed to keep my capital intact in this long, long Bear Market, by selling whenever sentiment starts to get Bullish. And buying whenever sentiment is solidly bearish. Over the last several months, there has been a steadily increasing amount of evidence that the fundamentals are turning. So I am shifting my stance, raising my sell targets, and also raising my buy-back targets. For instance, with AMAT, I will probably start buying back at 45, rather than starting at 40. And I've quit doing shorts and puts altogether. At this point in every previous rally for the last 2 years, I've been buying put LEAPs in whatever tech stock I judge has the most air in it. |
