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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing

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To: geoffb_si who wrote (2301)	3/8/2002 1:24:54 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) of 39344

What the heck we can just change the topic to "Pipeline" investing in honor of Zardoz <g>. I'm going mostly with mid tier rather than lower tier biotechs and focusing more on deeper (rather than one horse) more advanced pipelines that may not be too far away from successful product launches. And I want to see plenty of cash or revenue covered burn rates. To draw an analogy, the biotech mid tiers looked like MDG and GLG did a year ago at half these prices. The enterprise value (or technology value) for recognized high profile companies like Cell Geneysis, Isis, Corixa, Interneuron and Immunogen just aren't that much more than some of the weaker names that may not make it. I'm using McCamant's MTSL for some research backup on the goods. bioinvest.com Biotech still has the residual of the massive funds raised in the 99-00 bubble to fritter away. There are a few names on the cusp of the mid tiers like Onyx, Ribozyme and Maxim that are near net nets trading below cash in the treasury and valuing the pipeline at nothing. You will also see the shorts (getting fashionable) piled in on most of these names now. I think 2002 will be a tug of war between the shorts piling in and getting squeezed, the bubblelonians getting out in "afterthought" sales (similar to what happened in the juniors over the last several years) and new value investors getting in. I'm just in there stinky bidding and buying the swoons. It's deja vu all over again for PM juniors fans and it may take awhile to play out. A good strategy in the meantime are short term naked put and covered call writes. For example I wrote puts on the Isis April 15's at 1.50, the stock swooned down to 14.50 where I bought some shares, then on this recent rally I wrote the April 17.5 covered calls at 1.15. The delta (they are VOLATILE!)premium in the options (just make sure your commissions are cheap, Ameritrade is good as they only charge $23 on exercises, they also have a real workable option string screen) is perfect for milking during this accumulation phase. Back on topic, I have another Mexican name, Amarc (Hunter-Dickinson) I wonder if anybody has a feel for?

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