S&P 500 earnings and estimates as of March 6, 2002:
The S&P 500 closed at 1162.77
2002 operating earnings estimate was $52.83, P/E 22.0
22.0 x 0.531 = 1.168 or 16.8% overvalued by Fed model
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Top Down:
Year 2003 top down operating estimate was $52.10, P/E 22.3
Year 2002 top down operating estimate was $44.70, P/E 26.0
Year 2001 top down operating estimate was $38.41, P/E30.3
Year 2003 top down 'as reported' estimate was $49.50, P/E 23.5
Year 2002 top down 'as reported' estimate was $39.70, P/E 29.3
Year 2001 top down 'as reported' estimate was $25.54, P/E 45.5
Bottom Up:
Year 2002 operating earnings estimate was $52.83, P/E 22.0
Year 2001 operating earnings estimate was $38.72, P/E 30.0
The 12 month operating earnings estimate (Sep,'02) was $47.88, P/E 24.3
The current 12 month operating earnings (Sep,'01) was $42.02, P/E 27.7
Year 2001 'as reported' earnings estimate was $25.11, P/E 46.3
The current 12 month 'as reported' earnings (Sep,'01) was $28.31, P/E 41.1
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