COMMENTARY FROM BRIEFING.COM -----what's ahead for the Markets
Updated: 11-Mar-02
General Commentary
Two weeks ago, the Nasdaq Composite was down 13% year-to-date, and investors were fearing a repeat of last year... Fast forward to today... After surging by 233 points (127 of which came this week), or nearly 14%, the index begins the week down 21 points on the year, or a mere 1%.
The sector's reversal of fortunes is due to a spate of stronger than expected economic reports, which finally convinced investors that the economy has indeed turned the corner -- a claim Briefing.com has been making on this page for weeks... With one report after the other showing strength, investors began to aggressively rotate out of the defensive groups such as health care, gold, food, beverage and drug into later stage recovery sectors such as technology.
Tech sector's beleaguered state (in light of recent accounting/debt concerns) made it that much more attractive to late-comers and bargain hunters... Wireless, Networking/Telecom Equipment and Internet Software/Services stocks -- among the biggest losers prior to the current run -- paced last week's rebound... The chip sector also continued to outperform, with the bellwether Philadelphia Semiconductor (SOX) index breaking above stubborn resistance at 600, and closing the week at 637.94, up 12.5%.
The sector has now come a long way in a relatively short period of time... On the one hand, that's a show of strength and suggests additional upticks are in store... On the other hand, given how far and how fast the sector has travelled, a little backing and filling has to be expected... Just don't expect another big pullback any time soon.
There are some pundits that will argue that the sector has once again moved too far ahead of its fundamentals, and that less than stellar Q1 preannouncement/earnings numbers will result in another sizable correction... WRONG!
The big difference this time around is that the economic outlook is no longer in question... No less an authority than Greenspan himself noted last week that the recovery is "already well under way." Consequently, it's no longer a question of "if" tech earnings will rebound, but "when."
And with the data showing surprising strength, Briefing.com expecting investors to bet on sooner rather than later... In other words, one side benefit of the strong economic data is that it insulates the sector/market from disappointing Q1 earnings numbers because it shifts the focus to the (now bright) future.
We're not saying that stocks won't pullback on disappointing earnings news - they might and probably will... However, traders will now view such pullbacks as good intermediate- to long-term buying opportunities - making any such retreats short and shallow.
Robert Walberg, Briefing.com |
