gem-x's Elliott Wave Forecast: March 08, 02..Dramatic move ahead?
Greenspan days can be tough...and at times, they can be predictable..
I've noticed that days before a Greenspan speech, and the market rallies into
it, the next day there's a gap up, than sideways action during the actual
speech, and than the "Ok, Greenspan is done speaking, what do we do now?
sell?" drop..
I didn't know that his speech was today, and usually I stay flat the entire
day until the whiplash type moves that can happen settle down....and the fact
that INTC had a earnings update after the bell, made me less aggressive..
Really seemed like the typical action during Greenspan remarks, but the
selloff that I expected didn't get worse, or create a really bad looking
candle...the NASDAQ dropped 2 points below the .618 retracement level of the
move from 1841 to 1910 (1867), and didn't appear to be an impulse down....it
actually looked like a zigzag...and at the close, there were plenty of buyers
who jumped in to support it...the wave movements were very apprehensive, but
by the end of the day, there was a more clear cut looking wave pattern.
The question is now....was the move from 1841 to 1910 the first wave up in
the 5th wave? And, was the drop we saw just a Wave 2 of Wave 5?....or was
the move from 1841 to 1910 Wave 5? Another question is, was the move "Wave
B" in an expanded flat? There are 3 possible scenarios that have fell on
our laps.
Since tomorrow is a huge economic report (Unemployment), the move tomorrow
could be dramatic....The NASDAQ Futures are very key, and this reports
usually causes large flucuations when it comes out...what dramatic move that
would occur depends on these scenarios:
1.) If the move from 1841 to 1910 was just Wave 1 of Wave 5, and 1910 to
1865 was Wave 2 of Wave 5, than a 3rd wave up could occur tomorrow...taking
the NASDAQ to 1973-1976...this 5th wave, could be one of those extended
versions taking out put holders left and right going up to expiration if this
is the case...what was pretty interesting, was that the NASDAQ closed
directly on the downward channel from 1910 to 1865. If the NASDAQ moves
just 1-2 points up, that would be a channel break, and a rally..
2.) If the move from 1841 to 1910 was "Wave B" which is very possible since
it got to the 1.382 X Wave A parameter, going to 1907 (NASDAQ got to 1910),
than it would be an expanded flat, and a 3-4-5 down would complete the
impulse, dropping to the .78 retracement level, 1856 and as low, but not
breaking 1841, than that 5th wave rally up.
3.) BUT, if the move from 1841 to 1910 was the top of "Wave 5", and the COMP
breaks clear through 1841, we'd start a "Wave 2" correction, retracing the
entire move from 1696 to 1910, targeting 1828 (.382 retracement), 1803
(.500) or 1777 (.618)...Making the current move down from 1910 a "Wave A".
Three possible scenarios....but when I bring up the 10 day NASDAQ chart, the
channels are possibly showing that the move from 1728 to 1910 was the entire
Wave 3(!!), and we just entered a Wave 4 dropping to 1841-1856, and Wave 5
hasn't even arrived yet.
What makes the level 1841 convenient, should we drop there tomorrow, is the
fact that that level would be the dead on exact .382 Fibonacci retracement of
the entire move from 1728 to 1910...and Wave 4's usually terminate at that
point.
Here's the chart with the channels and labels
angelfire.com
And the channels I was watching the past 2 days:
angelfire.com
Everything depends on how the NASDAQ Futures react to the Unemployment Report
tomorrow morning....like I said, just 1-2 points moving up on the COMP would
be a break of the downward channel....but a move down, would target 1856 and
1841...a break of 1841 would magnify the chances of that Wave 2 correction to
1777-1828.
**I just finished designing a version of my web site, all my charts are
there, including the long term DOW count from 1974 to present, the long term
NASDAQ chart from 1974 to present, as well as a lot of other cool little bits
of Elliott Wave notes....
Here's the rough version: angelfire.com
**Also, for all the people on the subscriber list who have been e-mailing me,
asking about wave counts for individual stocks, or indexes, which are plenty,
I've found a way to make things easier....doing individual wave counts of
specific stocks and indexes, and drawing and posting them on a gif chart is
very time consuming for me...If you noticed, a lot of my forecasts arrive
late at night, mostly because I really work hard to make things as accurate
as possible..., as well as answer a lot of inquiries about day to day
happenings, stocks and indexes every night... but I know it's something that
a lot of people are interested in, so here's what I've come up with. I'll
be sending an e-mail to you from Keen.com...basically, on Keen.com, I can
send custom counted charts for all the requests I've been having, on a Pay
Per View basis. A lot of these custom counted charts can be very helpful
for 3-4 months of trading, and if you sign up for Keen.com, they would give
you $10 free to try it out. With that free $10 in the Keen.com account, you
can get that chart you've been dying to see.... I can send custom counted
charts for all the floods of requests I've been having...this would lower the
amount of work I'd be doing every night, as well as lessen the amount of
stress(!!), and you'd also get that chart you've been waiting for for a
while. Basically, I'd charge $4.95 for 4 charts, $3.95 for 3 charts, $2.95
for 2 charts, and $1.95 for 1 chart, as well as commentary as to what
possible scenarios could develop based on the count I see, standard TA
Analysis with candles, MACD, RSI, etc...fibonacci retracements, and possible
breakouts using channels....But since Keen.com would give you $10 free, that
would be 8 charts total for any index or stock you want, free of charge....
and you can finally get that count for that stock you've been waiting for.
I get a huge amount of requests for stocks on the NASDAQ DOW SPX NYSE, etc,
and indexes ranging from the DOW COMP SPX, and foreign indexes in Asia and
Europe....also, I'd feel plenty rewarded for all the work I put in ;)....so
either way, it would all be appreciated.
Thanks, Ted |
