My "sequence for JNPR is first a dip under $12, then a 50% gain to the $17/18, another dip to $14/15 and a run to at best $22, do not have it going to $27 before the June massacre. By the way, some of my indicators are now flashing warning signals again. Not only has the turnip's thread turned almost homogeneously bullish, but there is a lack of expansion of new high and of volume on the Naz. That with the fact that the number of stocks above their 10, 21 DMA is reaching a very high extremes (in the semis for instance 2 days ago only 2% of the stocks were not above their 10 DMA and only 7% were not above their 21 days, an extreme I have not seen for a long time). When I couple that with the very low equity PC ratio, the VIX and VXN (but one got to wait for a turn, not just a low number), I start and become very Jewish, I worry a lot. So much, that if we do not take a sizeable breather here (a solid 100 Naz points to the 1830 area), we may finish the "spring rally" much earlier than I thought. That is one reason that I have reduced exposure quite a lot here (to 62% cash, at one point today I was under 30% cash). My best guess is thus a sharp decline going into expiry next week (that should probably agree with Mish' expiry model).
Zeev |
