Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (39319)	3/8/2002 11:12:45 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) of 99280

My best guess is thus a sharp decline going into expiry next week (that should probably agree with Mish' expiry model). Zeev So far the powers that be have managed to close us near pain for 3 consecutive months and this would be #4. I picked up a handful of QQQ puts today, March 41 in the money for $2.35 today. Even if we rise to QQQ 39 and stay there I will not lose that much. Pain comes on a close above 39 but call buying at QQQ 38 has been tremendous. 20000 new March QQQ 38 calls today vs 6000 puts. Amazing. This (late?) in the rally and people want more more more. As we both know it can feed on itself, but so far pain has been working so I made a small bet on it with a handful of puts. Hoping for QQQ 37 and if it comes at any point I will take the profit and go back to the weeds. April call buying could be the key to where we go next month. So far we had the January effect in Dec, The Tax selling and huge losses in Sept. The November Rally in October. Is the Spring rally over by Easter? (which is also early this year if I am not mistaken) M

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