Would love to hear your take of the market - short, intermediate and long term.
... so you can blow me away (J.T.) with your bull market cheers and critical comments here ... no thanks ... ROTFLMAO ... HA HA ...
... but of course my Badger friend ... here it is ...
(1) I am not buying S&P puts for September (or any other future period), so that certainly makes me less bearish about the balance of calendar 2002.
(2) I am trading S&P futures daily, but without the bearish slant ... I am taking what they give me, whether it is up or down. I am not holding positions over night or even all day.
(3) In the very short term, say the next week or two, I think U.S. equities will move up. But I am watching the commercials, public sentiment, the ADX and stochastics closely (for the S&Ps). Right now, my interpretation is that this rally will not have very long legs.
(4) Longer term, (say late July or even late October), I believe we will be lower then than we are now. I refer you to the 2nd article from Business Week from my earlier post - that pretty much articulates my view. Too much wishin' - hopin' - prayin' and spinnin' by investors, our government, Wall Street and the media. I am not convinced that either the recession or the bear market are over.
(5) Talking with one of my neighbors last night, who sold all his stocks near the bottom (after losing over $1M of his capital in equities during 2000-2001), he said that he was going to jump back into stocks 100% next week. Good luck, neighbor. You will not be alone, but pardon me if I do not participate.
(6) I am doing a bunch of research to try to find two or three growth companies (read as NOT high-tech companies) that did well during 2000 and 2001, and have good prospects that I might buy now. AND believe me, in the mid to large-cap area, there are not very many to choose from.
Awaiting your rocks, sticks and stones ... and ready to defend myself ... <GGG>
Ken Wilson |
