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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (9176)3/9/2002 10:07:14 PM
From: Vector1  Read Replies (4) of 9719
 
Spek, I am shellshocked. Yes, I am considering everything and reaccessing some fundamental parts of my strategy. One thing we have not done in the fund becasuse we felt it was to complicated from an accounting standpoint is to take hedging positions. Clearly when a stock has as much of its value tied into an FDA approval such as SEPR with Soltara it is wise to hedge with a put option. We should probably add this to the strategy. In addition I am concerned about what in my opinion the less than clear signals the FDA is giving companies far down the road in clinical trials. By reviewing trial data and talking to experts and overall due diligence we can make judgements about likelihood of approval. That is what I thought. However, withthe FDA creating a moving target it is very difficult to value drug development companies. Perhaps the answer is to stick with companies going after an unmet life-threatening medical need. That is something to consider. I am giving this and other things a lot of thought. Maybe I have lost the touch and should just give up shop. I am not looking for sympathy, I am frustrated.

With regard to CELG I still think they will make their numbers and the FDA decision should have been priced into the stock.

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