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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace
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To: David Zgodzinski who wrote (33825)3/9/2002 10:30:17 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) of 209892
 
David,

I can assure you that these increases in square footage are embedded in such forecasts. In my biz (electric utility) we have charts we call "hockey sticks." The sharper leg having begun in the 97-98 timeframe. These accelerations are extrapolated ad infinitum. We sub for our load projections and the recent report came back so high, we told them to go back to work on it. A large number of plants were put on the planning boards in the same timeframe helped along even further by a couple of items

1) A huge spike in power prices -- a result of unusually widespread hot weather combined with new regs for transmission.

2) Some delays in the years preceding for fear of what dereg would bring.

The net effect is this: If you are thinking that projections will be too low and there will be significant undercapacity in the electric markets -- it just won't happen. That doesn't rule out it getting real hot and some occasional price spikes, but the forward markets for electrical energy have it right, IMO (they have collapsed for summer of 02 vs. what they were last year). We're fine for 02. By 03 folks will be amazed at the number of plants scheduled for completion by 04 and 05 that have been cancelled.

I don't know about oil -- not my forte.
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