The continued long-term weakness of commodities is an
indication of precarious economic health. There is no
question in our minds that the extended recession scenario
will get more extended. Mal-investment has to be worked
out and that could take three to four more years. The
liquidation of excess plant and equipment and durable goods
excesses could also take two more years. Almost every
commodity is in excess supply and further excess supply is
coming to market. The only exception is silver, which is
reasonably elastic and usage is higher than production and
scrap. Maybe those reliable sources are not as reliable as
investors would like them to be. We still have three hurdles
to overcome, the real estate, debt and derivative bubbles and
before this is all over they’ll all be broken. We’ve seen an
800-point rally in the Dow recently, but we don’t think it has
legs. Mutual fund managers remain fully invested with very
small reserves of cash. A sign things are not normal is that
gold is moving up strongly, as are the stocks, almost
unnoticed as the Plunge Protection Team tries to produce a
big Dow rally. Yes, the background is showing signs of
recovery but we feel it will be short lived.
It looks as though the US will have an $80 billion deficit
after having again looted over $100 billion from social
security and pensions for perpetual war for perpetual peace.
The current account deficit is headed for $450 billion for the
year and the dollar is what we think in its last rally. Any
further police actions or so-called UN-NATO wars will
cause even more economic instability in America.
Historically when empires have been in severe trouble due
to a fiat money system they resorted to a military solution.
The effect of elitist corruption and greed has forced the
powers of darkness to expedite their program of world
domination. Immorality is spread deeply across America
and world society. It ranges from looting the wealth of
companies, Ponzi schemes and physically drugged
debauchery. If we don’t have a sustained recovery and
continue massive deficit spending again, the dollar will get
weaker and we’ll see worldwide deflation. Why do we not
hear anyone in business, academia or politics speak out
against these so-called wars? We are now even sending
troops and equipment into Georgia. Constitutional freedoms
are being swept away by FEMA, Fatherland Security and
the new propaganda ministry known as Office of Strategic
influence.
Of course, nowhere in the power structure do we hear
anything about balanced budgets or gold-backed currencies.
The media, government and businesses are 99.8% against
any kind of gold standard. America no longer has the public
wealth or armed forces to fight police actions in six to eight
countries. In fact, massive spending and deficits are a
prescription for inevitable economic collapse. Terrorism is
new to America and it is stupid to pursue every country that
might be involved. What Mr. Bush has done would be
considered immature if we didn’t know he had another
agenda. Europe learned to live with terrorism, even if state
sponsored, and so why won’t Americans. We don’t believe
Americans in Wall Street, government and the media are
blinded to what is going on. They are simply too terrified to
say anything, because these people kill people and think
nothing of it. That’s why there is little dissention. They see
but their sense of survival or gutlessness doesn’t allow them
to speak and seek the truth. Thus the lies and disinformation
continue, but not forever. We’ll have our day, every dog
does.
The next extension of our voluntary military is private
armies. These volunteer mercenary forces organized by
private corporations would fight wars on a contract fee
basis for the UN and NATO. Governments are unwilling to
send their own citizens into combat, so this is a natural. We
can remember doing a TV show in Memphis in 1985 and the
question asked was, do you foresee major wars? We
answered yes but a prolonged war would not be acceptable
to the public after Vietnam. If the US had a major war no
one would attend. That prediction is about to come true. We
see the rapid deployment force for hire as the answer. We
don’t like mercenary armies but they will soon be a reality.
The British group Executive Outcomes, which we know
intimately, a subsidiary of the British Royal Family, is a
perfect example.
Clear cut evidence is available proving that in 1971, in
meetings between China and Henry Kissinger, that he
promised the Chinese that the US would never in the future
support Taiwan, as a part of the ending of the Vietnam war.
Yes, we have destroyed our industrial base in order to
subsidize other nations, particularly Mexico and China. This
is done to keep the fiat money illusion going, without an
explosive inflation of prices the system must move
production to low-cost producers. This way inflation is kept
in check. Of course, with any lie, one begets another and so
to keep wage inflation low you must also import cheaper
foreign labor, legal or illegal. That keeps US wages down
and continues the fallacy of low inflation. Fiat of course is
poison for any nation that succumbs to the bankers’
Pandora’s box of intangible "money" without limits. As we
have pointed out many times this has worked well, export of
production and import of cheap labor, but those advantages
have now lost their impetus. We are headed into deflation,
which cancels their need, thus illegal immigration will be
halted as will the exportation of manufacturing. In fact,
manufacturing in part will return albeit too late. The result
of this elitist ploy is that the depression will be worse then
that of the 1930’s.
Intelligence is circulating, and we cannot verify its veracity
that a number of Americans have been picked up and
detained by FEMA. We were told the government would
betray even some of their own under martial law, and many
faithful servants of the government would inevitably find
their own names on the list for priority arrest. We were also
told that multinational forces were practicing Urban
Warfare of a chemical biological nature. They are
predominately German and Russian. We also have been told
there are organized opposing forces.
The Florida State pension fund lost $328 million and was
one of the biggest losers in the Enron collapse. As you know
Jeb Bush is governor of Florida. As Enron’s stock plunged,
Alliance Capital and its star money manager, Alfred
Harrison bought more and more Enron shares. Alliance
executive Frank Savage was an Enron board member. The
real question is was Governor Bush behind the Enron
purchase.
The Commerce Department reports the savings rate for
January was 1.8% up from 1% in December. It could be that
savings could be 3% by the end of 2003. If we are correct,
long term that is excellent, but short term it will make any
recovery more difficult. As we recently reported those in
their late 50’s were saying they’d have to put off retirement
for three to six years due to the collapse of their stock and
retirement portfolios. In addition, the Treasury could care
less. They are projecting the looting of social security,
pensions and Medicare and Medicaid into 2009. Again, we
are in another trap just like the Japanese are. As time goes
on and things deteriorate Americans will lose confidence in
their government just as they already have in Japan. Thus
the flight to quality, the flight to gold has already begun and
we’ll follow. Higher savings under today’s circumstances
unfortunately means less confidence in government, more
personal security and less consuming.
There is an investor revolt and venture capital firms are
feeling the sting. They want to escape capital commitments
and some are suing to recover capital losses. Limited
partners now say venture capital firms are sitting on far
more capital then they can invest profitably. The industry
has $75 billion in un-invested capital. They raised too much
capital and their fees are excessive. Suits are flying and
things are bad in venture investment land. The other shoe is
now about to drop in the form of write-downs on portfolios.
Some investors such as JP Morgan Chase and BofA have
been selling their interests. Many can’t find buyers like in
the late 1980’s when the 1986 Tax Reform Act destroyed
commercial real estate and bankrupted eight million
millionaires. That’s thanks to Congress and no
grandfathering. This debacle could be worse.
America’s new shadow government is under the command
of Dick Cheney, now known as the Lord of the Rings, ruling
over his very own Mariah, an underground kingdom of
bureaucratic hobbits and orcs. The Continuity of
Government or COG as it’s known, is an attempt to keep
George W. Bush in office. Until last week Congress was
unaware of the new secret shadow government. The CFR
simply had forgotten to tell them or better yet they didn’t
have a need to know.
We have a farsighted new government. They are considering
the Kingman, Arizona area for a private prison for foreign
nationals. Long ago we used to hunt near and about
Kingman another gray desert town. They would house 4,500
inmates there. Pray tell, where will they come from?
After 9/11 we advocated the airline industry move to
self-insurance instead of being gouged by insurance
companies. They are getting close. Washington is addressing
a proposed Airline-owned insurance company that would
provide them with coverage for acts of war and terrorism.
The government has agreed in principle with the airlines’
plan. Congress refused to subsidize the insurance industry
requests. Here is an example where private insurance
companies demand extortion to cover their losses and
unfortunately government has had to come to the airlines’
and public’s aid because of the greed of the insurance
industry.
We recommended a short position on Computers Associates
(CA-NYSE) at $36 a share with a cover of $18.13. We're
assuming you’ve covered and taken a large profit. The stock
traded to $14.30 and is currently $16.90. Moody’s has just
lowered their long- term bond rating citing reduced cash
flow and uncertainty surrounding a federal investigation.
Chairman Charles Wang and CEO Sanjay Komar sold 5.8
million shares the day officials confirmed the probe. This
was a forced sale by UBS, which was held as collateral on
personal loans. The new Baa2 drop from Baa1 is two notches
above junk. The drop in rating caused the company to
cancel a $1 billion bond offering. S&P had already dropped
their rating. Both the SEC and the US Attorney’s Office are
investigating. The SEC only brings in the Justice
Department when they are pretty sure something criminal is
going on. We suggest a short again at $18.50 and a cover at
$9.50 - $10.00. We could see $6.00 a share.
The Washington Times reports that Glenn Spencer of
Voices of Citizens Together says a border war between the
US and Mexico could happen at any time. He detailed
statements of Mexican American leaders advocating
reconquista, or the reclaiming by Mexico of territory that
the US captured in the 1800’s. Mr. Spencer said millions of
illegal immigrants flooding into California and other states
in the Southwest are the foot soldiers of this movement. He
cited that San Fernando Valley, which was 24% Hispanic as
recent as 1992, is now 52% Hispanic. Southern California’s
labor unions are now controlled by Mexican Americans who
have hinted at a general strike if George W. Bush doesn’t
meet their demands for amnesty for illegal aliens. Thousands
of illegals cross the border every day and conflict between
the US border patrol and Mexican authorities could touch
off strikes, protests and riots by Hispanic militants in the
US. There could be civil war. Since the days of the early
1960’s and Reyes Tejarina, Mexican American militants
have claimed California as an independent Hispanic
territory called Aztlan. We are not just importing poverty
we can also import revolution. To access Voices of Citizens
Together go to WWW.Americanpatrol.com
Our secret government goes on its merry way doing exactly
as it pleases. Senators from both parties requested Tom
Ridge, Fatherland Security Director, give his views and
insights on the policies necessary to meet the threat of future
terrorism and he refused to do so. His answer was, "he is an
advisor to the president (dictator), not a Senate-confirmed
head of an agency that implements policy". The executive
branch simply refuses to cooperate with Congress on
national security issues. Our federal government is acting
like a Gestapo in another undeclared UN-NATO war to
serve the purposes of transnational corporations,
particularly oil companies.
Florida law enforcement may soon be the first state body to
have authority to arrest illegal aliens.
Florida had $27 billion in exports last year, and nine of the
state’s top ten trading partners are Latin American
countries. Last year exports to El Salvador were off 7.7%
and to Argentina they dropped 25.2%. As you can see bad
economic news for our neighbors to the south is bad news
also for Florida.
Bankruptcy in the steel industry caused by elitist
transnational free trade will deprive workers of their
health-care and life insurance benefits. Our government is
directly responsible for these companies going under
because the executive and legislative branches created the
groundwork for their failure. Our government should be
responsible for workers benefits. This is unconscionable.
Men and women work all their lives and have nothing to
show for it as foreign corporations employing slave labor
flood our country with their goods. And, none of the profits
are spent here. Our Congress isn’t insane they are simply
bought off. Free trade is an American disaster. Efforts to
strip America of its ability to produce goods began in 1962
and the stripping of our economy will be complete in the
next few years.
Two candidates for governor in Texas debated in Spanish as
English speakers looked on aghast. The two Spanish
surnamed candidates insisted on elevating Spanish to equal
status with English."
First of all these two candidates are Democrats. The content
of the debate in Spanish was pretty much a repeat of the
debate conducted in English, which had taken place one
hour earlier. In the debate conducted in Spanish, one of the
candidates, Dan Morales, insisted on summarizing his
comments in English but with objections from the debate
organizers. (He, of course, was the one that spoke barely
passable sixth grade Spanish.) Both of these candidates are
elitists, with Mr. Dan Morales, the former Texas Attorney
General, a Harvard Law School graduate, and Mr. Sanchez,
a billionaire oil & gas and banking tycoon. What was
shocking was that both candidates believed that
undocumented workers should be allowed to have Texas
drivers' licenses with Mr. Sanchez adding that granting
them licenses would help their self-image! |
