Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 259.21

-4.0%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: Paul V. who wrote (61835)	3/10/2002 1:08:48 PM
From: brunn	Read Replies (1) of 70976

AMAT peaked at 108 while earning $2.7 (both these numbers not adjusted for two splits) that current fiscal year. It should be remembered that AMAT is around break even this year and does not appear to be able to reach $2.7 for atleast another two years (I could see $1.35 in 2003 and $2.7 in 2004 happening if all goes well for them.) In other words, if AMAT were to reach 100 this year, it would be pricing in profits atleast two years further into the future than it did in 1997. And remember, people that paid 108 for AMAT in 1997 would find their investment lose more than half its value within a year's time. I know the stock price is far from 100 but I suspect that many are hoping to see it sooner rather than later, as your message suggests. In other words, momentum and technicals are in AMAT's favor right now. Fundamentals, however, would suggest that the stock price is getting years ahead of itself--and this in supposedly a post-bubble, saner stock market.

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