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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum
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To: ftth who started this subject3/10/2002 3:57:07 PM
From: ftth  Read Replies (1) of 46821
 
And regarding Moore's law, profits, and upgrade cycles, I know I am stating the obvious but note that PC's and consumer electronics aren't deployed into a business so they don't have to show a profit or ROI before it can be upgraded again.

Every PC buyer and consumer electronics gadget buyer knows from day one they will have an accounting loss on the prior equipment at the time of their next upgrade (AND on the next upgrade). People just accept this. They upgrade because of perceived or rationalized value. They don't have shareholders to answer to. The "Moore's law" growth in the PC platform would have never happened without this constant running cycle of accounting losses that is accepted by the buyers.

Unfortunately a company deploying a subscription-based network and all its associated limited-life equipment cannot play this "upgrade every 2 years" game. They'd be bankrupt by the 2nd upgrade cycle. This is why the only broadband upgrade that makes any sense (and will also provide a platform for growth) is one that takes a giant next step, like 100Mbps. The cost differential between the legacy low megabit gear and 100Mb Ethernet is nil today, but the latter provides many, many, more years of service life and contined growth than the former.

If people could just overcome this mindset that digging trenches is like putting a man on Pluto, the next step would be obvious. It's not like there aren't tens of millions of people that couldn't be trained to dig trenches in a 1 hour seminar.
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