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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: jayhawk969 who wrote (9183)	3/10/2002 5:09:25 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Read Replies (1) of 9719

<<and NBIX has 2/3 of its valuation riding on insomnia.>> VD tread isn’t my favorite place for comments, because in many cases it only scratches the surface of the problems. Based on current price NBIX MC of $1.1 B (if reduced by cash) is actually $800M. So, what you said is that 34060 current market value is $550 M and rest of technology is $250M. I will agree that many new NBIX investors were triggered by insomnia drug promises. Based on current data I am giving them +80% chance for transient insomnia and MOTN label, with drug market potential (my projected sale) for this two indication at $300 M for ‘06. This does not include chronic insomnia market. Multiple by 8-10 X sale is $2.4-3.0B market value for 34060. Because chances for this two indication are very high, I see very low risk for current $550 market value. However, that all other NBIX technologies and programs are worth only $250M is very big mistake. I will not go in detail for each program and how much is worth to NBIX at its partners. It is (conservative) more that $500M in my books. Bottom line, labeling NBIX in the same risk group with BTRN (regardless what is concern or issue) is wrong, imo. Miljenko

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