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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Steve Lee who wrote (39514)3/10/2002 5:14:25 PM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
The recession such that it was probably is over. But the upside is quite limited IMHO since super-easy credit kept autos and housings booming right through the downturn contrary to previous experience. With interest rates surging, autos and housing are headed lower, not higher.

If we had a had a real recession and bear market that had begun to redress the bubble distortions-- excess leverage, overvalued stocks, a persistent "mania" psychology, and a huge trade deficit -- the stage would indeed be set for a new bull market. But under current conditions a new sustained bull is out of the question IMHO. Will enjoy the rally while it lasts, but I still expect the lows to be tested next fall.
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