Actually, I expected worst case at 1757 (and was a change from the Dec 29 scenario, when I expected just a dip under 1940/60 or so, the turnips do err and try and correct as they go). The way i see it now is one of three possibilities, the most likely, IMTO, is a fast retreat to 1830 and then a resumption of the spring rally , which can then run to the 2250 area. From there going through the double top and the June decline which is still in the original "plan".
A less likely scenario is that we decline here very hard (once more retesting to to the mid 1700 or lower), and then go up but only to about 2098 or so. If that decline creates a string of multiple -1200 tic on the Naz a late spring rally could ensue as planned earlier. If not, just meandering for few months in the 1700/1950 area.
The third scenario, is that we continue here straight ahead, and within four weeks or so, get just to make a new recovery high (just above 2100) and then go into an early massacre (instead of June a late April, May and possibly June) massacre getting us to 1500 (plus minus 30 points). These three scenario are in order of "likelihood".
I still think that the first scenario is the most likely.
Zeev |
