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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (5803)	3/11/2002 12:12:43 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) of 33421

Hi Ray, I noticed that the German Bund contract actually broke down in price prior to our 10 year note. I think this indicates that we're seeing some possible signs of a stronger global upturn; or at least some of the participants in the global capital markets are viewing this as a possibility. The $/yen had it's biggest one day decline since Oct 1998 due to the the continued strength in Japanese Equities and several firms such as MER and MWD boosting their Japanese equity allocations. ------------- 10-year: -41/32..5.220%....GNMAs: -16/32....$-¥: 127.13....Euro-$: 0.8837 FXSummary: Any guesses as to what the focus was in the foreign exchange market today? Not surprisingly, all eyes were on the yen. Dollar/yen suffered its biggest one-day decline since October of 1998 as Japanese investors stepped up their fiscal year-end repatriation and investment banks continued to recommend that clients purchase Japanese equities at the expense of US stocks. Carry trade unwinds were also a factor, as was stop-loss selling, which took the market through a number of significant support levels. The weakness in dollar/yen weighed on the greenback throughout the session, despite the signs of optimism from Fed Chairman Greenspan. Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee that economic recovery "is well under way". The euro took advantage of the dollar's weakness, while a recent break of trendline resistance from early January fostered talks of speculative funds taking another stab at long positions. Of interest however, the euro was unable to push through resistance at its 100-day moving average of $0.8843. The Swiss franc broke through similar resistance, but was also unable to make a credible push through its 100-day moving average. Gains in sterling were somewhat subdued, highlighting our concerns about the ability of global economic recovery optimism to take some of the steam out of the demand-based currencies. The Aussie also shot higher, benefiting from another surge in commodity prices, while neither the Brazilian real nor the Mexican peso moved to far from the unchanged level.

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