Paul: Good thinking. While you use technical analysis as a primary sell indicator, I use Satie's piano views to interpret exit points and would like to present to you the One Monk's vision as follows:
1. 52 Week High/Low Indicator
IAIC's 52-week high is 70.4 times its 52-week low.
ZITL is 14.6 times.
TSRI is 13.0 times.
ACLY is 7.9 times.
DDIM is 5.5 times.
VIAS is 4.5 times.
IMRS is 4.0 times.
KEA is 3.7 times.
ALYD stands at 3.1 times. Question: Is it likely that it will underperform the above high flyers? If not, then is it likely that it will make a new low? If not, then the ratio of 52-week high/low has to expand. When it expands, new highs will occur. Hence this indicator disfavors premature ej.....
2. Time Windows Imbalance
Time window charts indicate that it took ALYD 9 months to build a technical flat base, it took its personnel department months to create a staff of coffee drinkers, it took its techies several years to develop its products, and it took the CEO several years to wait for the optimal time to break away from the pack. Question: Is it likely that this move is over in two weeks? If not, then the odds are on the side of the lengthening of the expansion time window that will ultimately lead to price explosion. Hence this indicator disfavors premature ej.....
3. Y2K
Y2K problem is still a clear and present danger to MIS outfits. The drop dead date is till 2.5 years away. Question: Will the Y2K sector discount this problem 2.5 years away? Fat chance. Technically speaking, one year is the max. Hence this indicator disfavors premature ej.....
4. General Market
All major market indexes are at all-time high. Question: Is it true that momentum is defined as "a trend in motion will continue"? Hence this indicator disfavors premature ej.....
5. Year Ended with "8" Syndrome
Years ended with "8" have been all bullish years. No exceptions. Hence this indicator disfavors premature ej.....
6. Mass Psychology
If you add the above items 3, 4 and 5, positive mass psychology will explode into a Super Nova. Since mass psychology is highly contagious (Should you have doubts, try yelling "fire" in a crowded pub), buying panic will occur and all Y2K stocks will go parabolic. Question: Are we having a buying panic now? Heck no. Only the early birds nibble at this juncture. Hence this indicator disfavors premature ej.....
When is the best time to sell? IMHO, mass psychology holds the key to rags or riches. When the market speaks, us tea leaf readers will listen. When the Y2K sector goes for the Moon, us chartists will follow it blindly, regardless of market caps, dividend yield, price/earning ratio and all these garbages. Quiz: What will you do when pigs go parabolic? This is the only correct answer: Escape to Virgin Isles.
This concludes my Satie's piano piece. If you are still unconvinced with my above reasoning against PE, then may I suggest OPs (for explanations, see notes below if you are over 18) to you?
Have a great week.
Regards,
Mad Monk
Notes: Orgasm Pills
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