2002 NCAA College Basketball March Madness Message Board

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Pastimes : 2002 NCAA College Basketball March Madness

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To: Jeffrey S. Mitchell who wrote (78)	3/11/2002 1:24:02 PM
From: zonkie	Read Replies (1) of 310

Jeff, I wasn't kidding either. The odds you state are based on are as if someone picked the 63 games without even knowing who was playing the game. If I understand it right it is based on there being a 1 in 2 chance of picking each game right. If a person really studies the teams and makes an "educated" prediction of the winner of each game I think that he should get about 38 of the 63 games right (just by coincidence that is how many I got right last year.) So instead of multiplying 2x2 and doing that 63 times I think the multiplier should be about 1.65. Using that I come up with the odds of getting all 63 games right one in 1.005815863979e+14 which as you can easily see is much better odds that your professor comes up with. My calculator only goes up to 13 digits so after the 58th game it starts into that scientific numerology or whatever it is called. Anyway, the way I figure the odds it comes out like this. If you know enough about basketball to get 38 out of the 63 games right you would have to enter the tournament about 164,242,965,203,740 (trillion) times to be pretty well assured of getting them all right once. I hope this helps.

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