Boy, are you sure your name isn't Wally<GG>? Well here we go!
1. DUV steppers are going to be R&D or limited production toys for the mainstream until the year 2000. I beleive this is where the major ramp will begin.
2. 300mm fabs become more of a reality in the 2000-2001 timeframe for tha mainstream. I see 1999 as a good year for the Foundry players like UMC, Charter, or TSMC and the same timeframe for the INTC, MOT, TI, or IBM to have 1 or 2 fabs on line or atleast in pilot production.
3. Ramping of production for this steppers will be more constrained by sub assembly deliveries and capacity of subcontractors like CYMI. Most stepper manufacturing facilities do not run 24hrs a day, 7 days a week. The ramp by Canon or NIkon could be handled with extra shifts. IF not, they have a gazillion dollars to throw at the problem. SVGI in Conn is supposedly geared for 200 systems. Again, the real gates may not reside with Canon, ASMLF, Nikon, or SVGI but with the CYMI type lasers and the lens optics from the subcontractors.
4. How many steppers??? That is a tough question so I will give you an equation to use such that when you can get more precise information on the device manufactured and the company ordering the systems, you can massage the equation.
a. Assume throughput of stepper to be 70 WPH (you need to read product literature and determine a comfortable value)
b. Assume the system is run 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
c. Assume 90% uptime for the system when available for use
d. Assume 7% unscheduled and scheduled downtime.
c. Assume 90% derating of equipment for manufacturing capacity
d. Assume 26 layers to process the device
e. Assume 50% of the layers require DUV lithography.
70*24*7*.9*.93*.9=8858 wafers processed per week per stepper.
8858/13=680 device wafers per week
The avarage 300mm Fab would probably do a minimum of 4000 starts per week thereby requiring 6 steppers per fab. At this level of commitment at least one redundant stepper would be purchased to handle perturbations in the process (bubbles) or a catostrophic downtime issue (like a failed laser or lens issue).
Therefore my guess is 7 steppers per "normal" fab at a cost of $35-$49 million dollars per fab. As the assumptions are changed and more solid numbers are known, this equation can provide you with a better than average approximation of what to expect. Please do not accpet my figures as a reality. The group as a whole should go out and debate the numbers to decide where we want to hang our hats.
5. At the height of the last semi boom, I saw lead times stretch from 12-18 months between order and delivery. I like the use of 12 months.
Hope this helps.
Andrew |
