Yawn....are you familiar with semiconductor fabrication techniques as they pertain to lowering manufacturing cost? Or, do you understand the complete product line of Xilinx and price schedule...beyond the class of lower-density arrays you mention? By the way, those lower-priced programmable arrays have a good chance of opening up new markets...I noticed you forget to mention that.
You may well go on (like you often do) taking partial information out of context. I could do the same thing...how about "PC prices were cut in half since last year!" Horrors?!? Seem catchy and scary?
Skeeter, I'm not picking on you -- but you and others know full well what a "speculative selloff" is. Shall I post links here to my well-timed and correct analyses concerning the "speculative networking stock selloff" (CSCO @45-50) or the infamous "speculative bond market selloff" not too long ago? My calls on both these issues were extremely prophetic -- on the bonds/inflation issue in particular I even predicted the (ahem) "inflationary" effect of airplane sales on the balance of trade.
In aggregate, the selloff in fixed- and programmable- logic device companies is looking really speculative right now. Just plain doesn't jive with supply-chain dynamics for the PC and networking industry, nor with the definitive SIA statistics, which show increased sales even in the face of price reductions on components.
Said another way, if Intel is doing so poorly, AND the logic device companies are doing so poorly, AND the MPEG chip companies are doing so poorly...HOW does one explain SIA numbers showing increasing sales month-to-month and same-month-over-last-year? ...you can't.
And sure, I'll say it...the latest SIA stat annualizes to 36% growth...though I wouldn't expect 3% monthly to persist. Except of course, I expect fourth quarter to meet or exceed that for each month.
You may be able to argue with all the CEOs who point to strong fundamentals by saying "slowdown this" and "slowdown that", but I challenge you to argue with the SIA statistics which point to a recovery and increasing sales.
Dan |
