gem-x's Elliott Wave Forecast: March 12 02, A top or more pop?
Previous day's/Today's move
Today, if you read my pre-market e-mail alert, I was expecting the NASDAQ to test 1892-1908..1908 being .382, .500 being 1900 and .618, 1892. The move looked like a zigzag and a triangle combination...when the NASDAQ popped around 10:30, the mini-upward channel broke, and that's where I locked in half my profits from Friday..the next move down didn't break a new low, around 1908, and because I usually don't trust the 1PM-2PM time frame during a sideways move like that, I opted to wait until 3PM...but than all of a sudden at 1:30PM, I started to notice another one of those "uh oh something big is gonna happen" ending diagonals...it wasn't just an ending diagonal, but a truncated version..the same version that caused the large move from 1728 to where we are now. (If you don't know what an "ending diagonal" is, basically, every time I've seen one the past couple months, and a channel breaks, the rally that has ensued after every one of them has been quick and dramatic..or if it happens in an uptrend, a quick a
angelfire.com
Today at 1:33-1:35PM:
angelfire.com
Today, when I spotted it, I tried frantically to send out the e-mail alert in real time...I believe half of you got it within 1-5 minutes, but the other half got it 40 minutes to literally an hour after it happened. (I'm trying my best to find a good solution to sending e-mails as fast as possible..I've looked all over the internet for a solution that can solve my problem, but after a ton of research and testing, surprisingly, the simple AOL e-mail worked the best, weighing in overall value and execution.)
There are other cool examples of this odd little wave, but that one formation is one of the main reasons why a lot of people are going nuts for the intraday e-mail alert...Last night, after I released my URL on Silicon Investor and on this list, my web site literally shut down for 30 minutes, due to an overload of visitors, and an hour later, a gigantic flood of new e-mail subscribers popped up. This is making things much much harder for me, so if any of you have other suggestions for improving the speed of e-mails, that won't cost thousands of dollars, I want to hear them..I've tried the Topicas, the Yahoo Groups, the Eudora's, different message boards etc etc..and everything came full circle back to AOL.
About the "ending diagonal-channel break":
Basically, the minute I spot one, and see the channel break, I take whatever cash I have available in my account, immediatly look at a website like Silicon Investor or Briefing.com for high percentage intraday gainers over $10 (this case it was JNPR), buy it, place a stop, and ride the wave up. This strategy has been practically bullet proof,(hasn't failed me yet), usually resulting in a high percentage position trade, and has usually been a pre-cursor for a larger move up..my best trade using and spotting it was in October when QLGC was in the low 20's...and when I spot a upward ending diagonal, or an "ascending triangle", and a channel break, I use the same strategy in the opposite direction, usually with the QQQ's...
Possible scenarios this week/tomorrow
Ok, now that I've explained this "ending diagonal" thing and the "uh oh channel break" to all the newbies on the list (I'm actually going to create a section of my web page that has translations for all the weird sounding terms I spout out in e-mails, to make things easier..), I can get to what I see tomorrow.. The 3PM drop sure put a shock into a lot of traders, but it didn't too as much technical damage as you might think..it dropped to the .382 retracement level of the move from 1906 to 1946, and at the close, the NASDAQ closed right on the downward channel...so it the NASDAQ rises just 1-3 points tomorrow morning, that would be another channel break..but before I'd react to that move, it, we'd have to be aware that the move down from 3PM looked like an impulse down, so the channel break could retrace .618 of the move down, and drop lower...if it breaks, I'd feel more comfortable taking a position if the NASDAQ broke the previous day's high...here's the downward channel I drew from 3PM:
angelfire.com
. Right now, the NASDAQ is riding the upward channel from 1728 to where we are now..yesterday, we barely grazed it before rallying, so we are dangerously close to it, come tomorrow morning. I would not like to see the NASDAQ drop below 1915-1920.
So, it's all about the how the NASDAQ opens, and the NASDAQ Futures...NOK has an update at 8AM, so those futures could change pretty quick...in the past, NOK news has triggered a rally, but we can't be too sure until we see the reaction to it...if we rally tomorrow it could be a possible "Wave 3 of Wave 5" taking the NASDAQ to as high as 2019...but what was bothersome, was that the NASDAQ got to one of my targets (1945) and reacted bad. 1945-1965 is one of my expected ceilings on this wave...1945 is the .618 retracement of the entire move down from 2099 (NASDAQ barely broke it..) and is typically how far the first wave up goes in a new upmove, so a bad morning tomorrow could be a pre-cursor to a 50% or more retracement of the entire wave from 1696-1946. Tomorrow is another key day...also looking at "mishedlo's" look at max pain, the QQQ's moving up from 38-40 have more calls than puts, so that could put a ceiling on things, especially when this week is triple witching..
Summary/Other notes, indicators
Basically, the NASDAQ's open and NASDAQ Futures will dictate what direction we're headed...we're really close to an upward channel break, but a 1-3 point move up could be a downward channel break and a rally. But the rally needs to break the previous day's high with authority for this move up to continue.. |
