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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: SofaSpud who wrote (3248)3/12/2002 11:21:20 AM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (2) of 3536
 
But it frankly never seems to come to a head.

Of course that doesn't mean that it won't. If the rest of the world hadn't had such a tremendous appetite for dollar assets the last several years, the dollar would have corrected long ago.

Currency traders are notorious for being trend followers. As long as the dollar kept rising, they kept buying it. Sooner or later, the growing holdings of $US assets - and the payments to service those holdings - will surpass even the willingness of foreigners to fund these current account deficits. It's then that the trend followers will go the other way and will be swimming with the tide.

I don't believe it will be a financial crisis, by any means, but I do believe a decline in the dollar will be vigorous.
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