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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets
IDTI 48.990.0%Mar 29 5:00 PM EST

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To: Rob S. who wrote (11360)3/12/2002 1:34:31 PM
From: Rob S.  Read Replies (1) of 11555
 
Now Nokia, Worldcom, and Lucent are dragging down the tech sector with a new dose of reality: capital spending continues to trend down in the broad band and long lines telecommunications areas.

IDTI is in a great position for long term growth but is still overpriced based on the outlook for the next three years imo. That said, it is one of the better tech stocks in terms of relative valuations. It's very high priced in terms of long-term historical valuations but that might not matter. What is different about this recession is that the FED and Government spending and tax incentive programs are very stimulative: rather than increase taxes and cut spending during the recession as has often happened in the past, the Government has increased spending and stimulus programs. The flood of liquidity is helping to revive the economy. Unfortunately, much of the telecommunications sector is in monstrous debt and grossly miscalculated future product demand. Not only did telecomms spend far too much on long-lines and funky 2.5G-3G technology, they did not spend enough for the messy "last mile" connection to paying customers. That's like building Noah's Ark in the middle of the Mohave desert during a seven year drought while running low on drinking water!

Thinking is shifting in some informed circles from gaudy 2.5 and 3G mobile wireless BB technologies and jump directly into 4G when it is available (two to 3 years). The new 4G technologies will be based on OFDM plus other advance technologies working synergistically to deliver greater bandwidth utilization (frequency reuse of several times) and less interference. Flarion/Cisco is a prime example of this direction but it will also incorporate smart targetable array, mesh networking an programmable "software radios" DSP technologies to deliver dramatic increaes in capabilites. And it's quickly becoming practical and moving from the R&D labs an into the marketplace. A significant part of this vision is bein incorporated into the soon to be ratified IEEE 802.16 WirelessMAN (Metro Area Network) standard. It's prime time for IDTI to do some acquisitions in that area if they have the savvy to spot the promising companies and technologies, inclduing some largely ignored patents and companies. A nice portfolio could be put together in the emerging wireless area for relatively next to nothing imo.
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