Gordon: >>Does anyone remember what VLNC's forcast was for the market? I think it was
mentioned in the conference call, but I forgot it.<< Yep, I do. According to Cal Reed,
who was asked a question regarding the market size for Lithium Polymer, he stated
that Nimura's(spelling?) projection was 1 Billion cells needed by the year 2005.
Now if they're accurate, multiply that figure by your $5 per battery figure and you
see why I'm questioning the other reports $500 Million in the same time frame. It's a
whole order of magnitude(probably several orders of magnitude) lower than Nimura's
projection.
But then again, it's anyones quess since these kinds of projections are forward looking
and ALWAYS subject to some kind of error. That' the thing about market analysis, at
some point it makes one become a seer, whether they like it or not. The question is
how you do it, with goat entrails, stochastics, surveys of equipment manufacturers
future product penetrations, etc.. I would guess the best way would be to round up
the major cellphone, laptop, PCS, etc., producers and get their best guess as to
their equipment projections in the same relative timeframe.
But remember, it's all GUESSING, no matter how qualified the source or the methodology.
Still, there's a market for the product. No one is arguing there isn't. It's a question
of how many "beans" are there in this market.
Regards!
John~ |
